Rising temperatures, coupled with high population densities, have significantly amplified the human health impacts of extreme heat stress across Pakistan. In response to this growing challenge, advanced satellite data and innovative modelling are now being leveraged to transition from passive observation to support active climate risk management.
By introducing a new methodology for mapping heat risks, a comprehensive, country-wide observation of climatological dynamics has become achievable, paving the way for crucial climate-related policy decisions.
Developing high-resolution heat risk maps
At the core of this initiative is the development of dynamic heat risk maps designed to pinpoint exactly where populations are most vulnerable. These maps are generated by combining high-resolution demographic data with the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI). Rather than relying solely on ambient air temperature, the UTCI evaluates heat stress based on how the human body actually experiences thermal environments, including humidity, wind speed, and radiation.
To turn these metrics into a useful assessment of the heat hazard, the heat risk maps specifically track heatwave events, defined as more than three consecutive days of exceptionally high UTCI values. Sustained exposure to elevated UTCI over multiple days is particularly dangerous because it denies the body the overnight recovery period it needs to cool down and rehydrate, driving up the risk of heat exhaustion, heatstroke, and cardiovascular strain with each additional day. The health burden falls hardest on the elderly, young children, outdoor and manual labourers, people with pre-existing cardiovascular or respiratory conditions, and residents of dense, low-income urban settlements with limited access to cooling or shade. For 2024, these maps were derived daily at a spatial resolution of 100 square metres, directly matching the granular resolution of the underlying population data. This micro-level insight allows urban planners, public health officials, and disaster management authorities to identify vulnerable neighbourhoods and implement targeted, localised interventions during peak heat events.
Key Technical Feature: Daily countrywide heat risk maps at 100 m² spatial resolution combine UTCI-derived heat stress indicators with population exposure data, enabling identification of at-risk communities.
Scalable framework for regional and global adaptation
One of the most powerful features of this new monitoring framework is its extraordinary versatility and ease of replication. Because all the core datasets utilised in the model are covering the whole globe, the entire methodology can be readily duplicated worldwide.
Expanding the system to neighbouring regions or analysing different historical or future years through to 2030 requires minimal adjustment. The framework has a user-friendly design so that users simply need to define the specific geographical boundaries of the target countries or territories. This frictionless scalability offers a vital blueprint for other countries prone to heat stress that may lack extensive local meteorological sensor infrastructure, but require robust, immediate risk-modelling capabilities.
Interactive viewer for investment decisions
All heat risk maps and underlying datasets can be explored through the interactive Climate and Health Viewer that will be integrated into the Climate-Health Portal from the Asian Development Bank. From a development bank perspective, this turns the outputs into a practical decision support tool. Teams can assess not only when heat risk emerges over time, but also where exposed populations and vulnerable communities are concentrated. This spatial and temporal evidence helps prioritise investments, compare areas of intervention, target resources, and support dialogue with government counterparts on climate resilient urban planning, public health preparedness, and adaptation financing.
Informing national policy and driving action
Ultimately, the goal of this platform is to bridge the gap between Earth observation science and governance. Providing continuous, nationwide tracking of climatological relationships enables Pakistan’s policymakers to base their strategic decisions on concrete empirical evidence. When integrated with existing demographic, health, and socioeconomic datasets, these EO-derived heat risk maps can support more targeted interventions by identifying populations and communities most vulnerable to heat stress. Such integrated evidence can also strengthen heat early warning systems and inform both immediate public health responses and longer-term planning, encouraging closer collaboration between climate and health stakeholders.
The insights generated from these daily maps are set to play a pivotal role in shaping long-term urban adaptation strategies, developing targeted public health advisory protocols, and refining national climate resilience frameworks. Armed with actionable, high-resolution spatial data, stakeholders can better anticipate compounding thermal threats, allocate critical resources proactively, and implement effective policies to protect vulnerable populations from the intensifying dangers of a warming climate.
Key takeaways
- Daily heat risk maps at 100 m² resolution combine UTCI climate data with population exposure to identify the heat-vulnerable communities.
- The fully global input datasets make the methodology immediately replicable across heat-vulnerable countries with minimal adaptation.
- EO-derived insights directly inform urban adaptation strategies, public health protocols, and long-term policy frameworks at the national level.
